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The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee is set to meet on December 6, with expectations to maintain the repo rate at 6.5% for the eleventh consecutive time. However, analysts anticipate a potential cut in the cash reserve ratio (CRR), currently at 4.5%, to enhance liquidity and support the economy, especially following a decline in GDP to 5.4%. The CRR is crucial for controlling inflation and managing lending practices among banks.
Krishnan V R of Marcellus anticipates that the Reserve Bank of India will lower its full-year growth forecast on December 6, following a ~6 percent GDP growth in the first half of the financial year. With the RBI's initial projection exceeding 7 percent, achieving over 8 percent growth in the second half now seems unlikely. He warns that prolonged consumption slowdown and risks in consumer lending could lead to further earnings downgrades, especially given high market valuations, while domestic flows are becoming insufficient to counteract significant foreign outflows since October.
Indian insurers are urging the government to issue new sovereign debt instruments, including zero-coupon bonds, to enhance their investment options. This request has been communicated to the Reserve Bank of India, which is in discussions with the Finance Ministry regarding the matter.
Sluggish GDP growth in India, which fell to 5.4% in the September quarter, may prompt the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to reconsider its steady interest rate stance held since May 2020. Experts indicate that the slowdown in consumption and investment has diminished the policy space for maintaining current rates, as the RBI's focus shifts from inflation control to addressing economic growth concerns. The RBI's monetary policy committee is set to meet from December 4 to December 6.
The Nifty index has seen a second consecutive week of gains, with the BSE Sensex up 0.86% and Nifty50 rising 0.93%. Despite a significant sell-off by Foreign Institutional Investors totaling Rs 5,026.77 crore, broader indices like Midcap and Smallcap outperformed with gains of 2.3% and 5%, respectively. However, a disappointing GDP growth rate of 5.4% for the second quarter raises concerns about an economic slowdown, potentially influencing the Reserve Bank of India to consider a rate cut.
India's forex reserves fell by USD 1.31 billion to USD 656.582 billion for the week ending November 22, according to the Reserve Bank of India. This decline follows a significant drop of USD 17.761 billion the previous week, marking a continued decrease from the record high of USD 704.885 billion in late September. Foreign currency assets, a key component of the reserves, decreased by USD 3.043 billion to USD 566.791 billion, reflecting the impact of currency fluctuations.
November marked a significant month for U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 rising 5.73% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping 7.54%, both achieving their best monthly performance of the year. Factors such as the conclusion of the presidential elections and positive economic indicators fueled investor sentiment, while Bitcoin surged 38%, its second-best month of the year. As December approaches, expectations for further growth remain high, with potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve adding to the bullish outlook.
India's forex reserves fell by $1.31 billion to $656.582 billion for the week ending November 22, according to the Reserve Bank of India. This decline follows a record drop of $17.761 billion the previous week. The reserves, which peaked at $704.885 billion in late September, have been decreasing amid pressure on the rupee.
India's central bank has intensified discussions with treasury traders regarding the banking system's liquidity, raising speculation about potential measures to enhance liquidity during the policy review on December 6. The focus of these talks has been on the impact of significant foreign outflows from stocks and bonds.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data reveals a significant increase in counterfeit high-value currency notes over the past five years. Fake Rs 500 notes surged by approximately 300%, while the Rs 2000 notes, which were withdrawn in May, also contributed to this alarming trend.
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